Steelers 32, Rams 17

Cowboys 41, Panthers 14

Bills 13, Giants 10

Packers 21, Bears 17

Browns 35, Bengals 31

Chiefs 28, Lion 17

Colts 24, Texans 20

Eagles 17, Saints 14

Jaguars 31, Raiders 13

Cardinals 22, Falcons 0

Bucs 20, 49ers 7

Titans 14, Jets 8

Patriots 40, Dolphins 0

Seahawks 13, Ravens 3

Redskins 22, Vikings 21

Broncos 28, Chargers 27

Last week: 10-6

Season: 140-82

Browns 27, Bills 24
Titans 13, Chiefs 10
Packers 44, Rams 7
Ravens 17, Dolphins 16
Patriots 38, Jets 17
Cardinals 35, Saints 14
Jaguars 26, Steelers 21
Buccaneers 22, Falcons 3
Seahawks 31, Panthers 13
Colts 38, Raiders 30
Cowboys 49, Eagles 14
Chargers 17, Lions 14
Giants 27, Redskins 0
Vikings 30, Bears 28

Last week: 11-5
Season: 130-76

 I’m far too much of a procrastinator to have finished all of my picks three days before Sunday, and these Thursday night games have an awful way of creeping up on me.

I knew the Packers were in trouble from the moment that Charles Woodson was not going to play.  His loss forced the Packers defense to scramble into odd man coverages and poor zones.  Tony Romo didn’t so much pick them apart as he did find the incredibly wide open guy. 

What’s more is that I knew the Packers didn’t have the firepower to keep up.  They have shown flashes of dominance in a few games this year, but those opponents were much lesser than the Cowboys.  Favre would need to be at the top of his game to give his Packers a chance, so when he went out with an elbow injury, not even a miraculous Aaron Rodgers performance could save them.

Maybe I should pick all my games after the fact. 

Panthers 24, 49ers 17

Carolina’s first home win comes with a miraculous Vinny Testaverde fourth quarter comeback after which the ancient quarterback’s kidneys give out.

Jaguars 17, Colts 13

David Garrard throws his first interception of the year, but makes up for it by chasing down the defender, stripping the ball, recovering the fumble and taking it to the end zone for a touchdown.

Chargers 38, Chiefs 10

Kolby Smith’s players-only meeting proves to have far less effect than LaDanian Tomlinson’s speech a week ago.

Jets 24, Dolphins 20

Upset about being underdogs to a winless team, the Jets play their best game of the year, helped by the Dolphins’ offensive indifference.

Lions 18, Vikings 14

Jason Hanson’s six field goals provide the difference, prompting Adrian Peterson to start practicing field goals in order to have a greater effect on games.

Eagles 28, Seahawks 24

A.J. Feeley follows up his great performance against the Patriots by going 4-for-4 with four touchdowns before retiring at halftime in order to “go out on top.”

Falcons 25, Rams 7

With no Marc Bulger, the Rams’ offense looks a lot like the Falcons offense, except with expectations.

Titans 31, Texans 17

Vince Young leads the Titans to victory with 100 yards passing and two interceptions.

Redskins 20, Bills 19

R.I.P. Sean Taylor.

Browns 35, Cardinals 28

The Browns recover a Kurt Warner fumble in his own end zone for the game-winning points.

Broncos 22, Raiders 12

The Broncos do not kick to Chris Carr to make sure they avoid a repeat from last week.

Giants 30, Bears 20

The Giants win despite Eli Manning’s four interceptions, since none of them were returned for touchdowns.

Steelers 17, Bengals 14

On Pittsburgh’s muddy field, Chad Johnson decides to mud wrestle with Chris Henry after a second quarter touchdown pass.

Patriots 56, Ravens 10

Upset about last week’s close win, Tom Brady and the New England offense put up 56 first half points.

Last week: 9-7

Season: 111-63

Both have become caricatures of themselves—Reilly with his inane storytelling and media blitz and Patrick with his self-promotion and glibness. And neither will make as much of a difference working for Sports Illustrated or ESPN as it might appear.

Reilly’s latest column was an odd comparison of how poor a homeless person has it compared to a scholarship athlete at Ohio State. Oh, the indignity! If this is the kind of stuff that he’ll bring to ESPN the Magazine (and it will be), then he’s just going to be keeping Dan LeBatard company on the pages I don’t care to read.

Patrick took things one step further by allowing himself to be interviewed in the interview space he used to interview people. Confused? I was more ambivalent.

The last thing ESPN the Mag needs is more heavy stories with meaning, and the last thing SI needs is someone trying to be funny.

Yet, I’m afraid that is what we are going to get.

***

Bucs 40, Falcons 14

Joey Harrington starts throwing touchdowns to the other team in protest of his impending demotion from starter. Byron Leftwich wonders what he did to deserve a coach’s trust.

Cardinals 21, Bengals 20

A missed extra-point in the final minutes gives the Cards the close win. Marvin Lewis pays Chris Henry to plant something illegal in Shayne Graham’s locker and make it look like an accident.

Colts 34, Chiefs 3

Although the Colts still have a majority of starters injured, the Chiefs have starter Brodie Croyle. The rest is pretty obvious.

Raiders 12, Vikings 9

Sebastian Janikowski’s 64-yard field goal wins it in overtime. Brad Childress tries to call a timeout after the fact, horribly botching the icing-the-kicker strategy.

Browns 28, Ravens 23

Brian Billick sticks with Steve McNair until he fumbles for the fourth consecutive play to start the game and his left arm falls off. Kyle Boller is allowed to play begrudgingly.

Packers 31, Panthers 13

Vinny Testaverde and Brett Favre starting in the same game prompts Don Majowski and Steve Beuerlein to start throwing again.

Saints 24, Texans 17

In a nice gesture, Reggie Bush hands the ball from his third 70-yard rushing touchdown to Mario Williams to say, “Thanks for letting me not be a Texan.”

Eagles 48, Dolphins 13

A John Beck sighting gives Dolphin fans hope until they remember the score is 48-13.

Giants 17, Lions 13

Detroit elects not to run the ball at all so as to avoid a second consecutive week of negative rushing yards. As such, they are unable to hold their 13-3 fourth quarter lead.

Steelers 28, Jets 7

Ben Roethlisberger throws four touchdowns and is sainted at halftime by Jim Nantz and Phil Simms.

Cowboys 44, Redskins 30

Late in the broadcast of the Dallas-Washington game, things turn ugly when Troy Aikman starts calling Tony Romo names. Aikman leaves the booth in tears right before Romo’s fifth TD pass.

Rams 7, 49ers 6

Trent Dilfer fails to spark the Niners offense. Predictably.

Bears 30, Seahawks 20

Rex Grossman’s time on the bench was well spent, as he tears up the Seahawks in a win. Still, Bears fans clamor for Brian Griese.

Patriots 44, Bills 10

The Patriots unveil their new secret weapon of short yardage running back Vince Wilfork, who they perfected during their bye week. Wilfork runs for a touchdown and catches three from Tom Brady.

Titans 14, Broncos 10

Vince Young further muddies the Madden Curse by playing poorly in a Titan win. Does the Madden Curse include regression as a starting quarterback?

Last week: 7-6
Season: 91-51

I pick NFL games extremely well.

Last week, I nailed every single one of my choices, going a perfect 12-0.  My streak was remarkable, considering I made most of my picks in a Starbucks listening to some sort of loud indie pop and wondering why the guy across the room was staring at me.

Not only did I get all 12 winners right, I also nailed several clairvoyant predictions.  

• “Chad Pennington goes one step closer to the bench.”  Assuming he was only one step away from the bench, I got this one exactly right.

• “Tom Brady rushes for five touchdowns.”  He actually rushed for two, proving my ability of accuracy and hyperbole.

• “Sage Rosenfels’ fourth quarter magic eludes him.”  True.

• “Brett Favre (throws) the game-winning TD pass.”  Exactly true.

Here are some perfect picks from the week to come: 

Tennessee 16, Carolina 13
The Titans win on a last-second field goal by Rob Bironas, who took over at quarterback for the final drive due to the ineffective quarterback play of Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Steve McNair via time machine, LenDale White, and Jeff Fisher.

Washington 52, New York Jets 7
The Redskins, angry after last week’s loss to the Patriots, rout the Jets, adding insult to injury with two touchdowns in the final two minutes.  “Do unto others,” Redskins coach Joe Gibbs said after the game.

New Orleans 24, Jacksonville 20
Fans shirk their paper bag get-ups for Drew Brees fake moles as a record crowd watches the resurgent Saints sneak by the Jaguars.  Quinn Gray hopes someone in Jacksonville remembers his name.

San Diego 42, Minnesota 13
Tarvaris Jackson’s return to the starting lineup receives a round of applause…by the Chargers defensive front seven.  Shawne Merriman has 8 sacks, a forced fumble, and a better quarterback rating than Jackson.

Atlanta 8, San Francisco 4
The Falcons and 49ers set an NFL record by combining for six safeties and zero offensive yards.

Packers 17, Chiefs 10
Unable to decide between using Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes on a fourth-and-one in the fourth quarter, Herm Edwards lines up Brodie Croyle at tailback.  He loses three yards by tripping over his own feet, and the Chiefs lose.

Denver 20, Detroit 13
John Lynch out-prays Jon Kitna.

Cincinnati 45, Buffalo 24
After the Bengals offense explodes in a rout of the Bills, Chris Henry buys alcohol for underage kids to celebrate, reasoning that the team doesn’t need him back for a couple more weeks anyway.

Seattle 24, Cleveland 23
Determined to make a point about his running game, Mike Holmgren calls nothing but stretch plays all game, resulting in Shaun Alexander’s 86 yards on 93 carries.  The Seahawks win on three defensive touchdowns.

Oakland 3, Houston 0
No one knows how the Raiders won because everyone was watching the Patriots-Colts game.

Dallas 30, Philadelphia 29
In a desperate fathering effort, Andy Reid brings his sons to work and lets them call all the plays.  A failed two-point conversion in the game’s final minutes costs the Eagles a victory.  Garrett Reid is criticized immediately after for the double-reverse-flea-flicker-statue-of-liberty-halfback-pass-dive that he called.

Steelers 20, Ravens 10
Steve McNair’s return to the starting lineup actually makes Kyle Boller look good.  Brian Billick weeps softly on the sideline. 

Last week: 12-0
Season: 75-40

Oh, wait.  Did I say nation?  I meant Boston and most of Denver.  The rest of us don’t really care that much about what’s going on, which makes the NFL’s annual favor to MLB of not broadcasting a Sunday night game to make room for World Series coverage all the more annoying.  My NFL Sunday is incomplete without a football nightcap, and this week I’ll be left wanting, or at least, wanting baseball to end.  The only thing worse than regular season baseball is postseason baseball because the games last twice as long and the hyperbole stretches twice as far.  Every pitch is historically significant, or so Tim McCarver would have us believe.  Every pitch is also brought to us by Taco Bell or a number of different sponsors who make commercial breaks longer than the top half of innings.

So instead of devoting my valuable time to baseball’s Fall Classic, I plan on doing something more important.  Like playing Madden…or spending time with my family.  I haven’t decided yet. 

Browns 28, Rams 13
With Steven Jackson in the lineup, the Rams open up the offense by running the ball outside the tackles and using play action—to no avail.

Lions 18, Bears 14
The Lions’ 18 fourth-quarter points are not quite as impressive as the 34 they hung on the Bears a few weeks earlier, but they are enough to overcome Devin Hester’s two return touchdowns.

Jaguars 7, Bucs 3
With Quinn Gray leading the way, Jacksonville tells the offense that they don’t need to win the game; they just can’t lose it.  In that vein, Jack Del Rio punts on third downs just in case.

Colts 42, Panthers 0
Vinny Testaverde matches his quarterback rating with his age, which obviously leads to a loss.

Bills 20, Jets 10
Trent Edwards goes to 3-1 as a starter, and Chad Pennington goes one step closer to the bench.

Steelers 35, Bengals 28
Chad Johnson gets kicked out of the game after a third quarter touchdown celebration in which he burns Marvin Lewis in effigy.

Eagles 17, Vikings 16
The Eagles get payback for the Bears’ last-second touchdown against them last week by doing the same on the final drive against the Vikings.  Strangely, it doesn’t have the same effect.

Titans 23, Raiders 9
Rob Bironas kicks seven field goals and records a safety, accounting for all of the Titans’ points.  He then holds out for more money.

Saints 28, 49ers 21
Alex Smith’s return to the San Francisco starting lineup reinvigorates the 49er offense until the second quarter when they realize that he’s just Alex Smith.  San Fran doesn’t cross the fifty after that.

Patriots 38, Redskins 17
Tom Brady rushes for five touchdowns…just because he can.

Chargers 31, Texans 7
Sage Rosenfels’ fourth-quarter magic eludes him, probably because he’s Sage Rosenfels and lightning never strikes the same place twice.

Packers 21, Broncos 20
The Denver Broncos defense gets caught watching Rockies highlights during the game’s final drive, allowing Brett Favre—not a baseball fan—to throw the winning TD pass. 

Last Week: 10-4
Season: 63-40 

Therefore, picking games is simply no longer hard enough.  Now I’m going to tell you exactly what will happen in each game. 

Sure, there is absolutely no way of telling how these contests will play out unless you are a seer or Tim Donaghy.  But not having ESP or mob connections never stopped me from doing anything before. 

Washington 14, Arizona 8
The Redskins bottle up the Cardinals’ running game by putting eleven men in the box, virtually daring Tim Rattay to throw.  He does so, only ineffectively.

New Orleans 31, Atlanta 13
Reggie Bush scores on runs of 40, 55, and 70 yards in the first half, proving that he is not overrated in the leas—so long as the Falcons are his opponent.

NY Giants 21, San Francisco 3
The Giants sack Trent Dilfer eight times, causing Bill Walsh to roll over in his grave to change the channel.

New England 40, Miami 10
Cleo Lemon, hot off his four-touchdown game last week, audibles every play to a deep pass.  He finishes with four interceptions before Cam Cameron benches him in favor of direct snaps to Ronnie Brown.

Tennessee 18, Houston 17
Mario Williams, intent on proving that he was a better pick than Vince Young, sneaks into the offensive huddle to play tight end on the game’s final play.  Matt Schaub boots left, spies Williams in the back of the end zone, but before he can throw it, he is sacked by Vince Young.

Kansas City 26, Oakland 14
Daunte Culpepper plays well enough to keep Jamarcus Russell on the bench but not well enough to win.  Al Davis dies a little more inside.

Philadelphia 13, Chicago 7
Devin Hester returns a first quarter punt for a touchdown.  Andy Reid goes for it on fourth down for the rest of the game.

Dallas 30, Minnesota 21
Wade Phillips, in his postgame press conference, credits the team’s win with the gameplan designed to “make Adrian Peterson beat us.”  Peterson rushes for 350 yards and three touchdowns on 59 carries in a losing effort.

Seattle 15, St. Louis 6
Shaun Alexander sees nowhere to run on a first quarter carry and goes down in the backfield.  Angry Seattle fans storm the field and sacrifice him to the 12^th Man flag.

Pittsburgh 23, Denver 21
Not content with the home-field advantage of mile-high air, a desperate Mike Shanahan literally slants the field in the direction the Broncos are going.  And he pulls Jay Cutler in the middle of his third snap.

Last Week: 10-3

Season: 53-36

That said, the weekly picks are going back to a straight-up version.  I never did like change anyway.There is a good variety of games on the schedule in Week Six, which is disappointing because I will be in a hotel room in Seattle, getting regional coverage of games I don’t want to see.  “What’s that?  The Rams and Ravens are playing this week?  I’d rather no—okay.”

If my room service bill is hundreds of dollars, you’ll know I tried to drown my sorrows in jumbo prawns and milkshakes.

Onto the picks: 

St. Louis vs. Baltimore.  The Ravens can’t score, and the Rams have Gus Frerotte as their quarterback.  Yep, this game’s on in my area.

• Ravens 16, Rams 13.

Minnesota vs. Chicago.  Everyone is saying the Bears saved their season last week in Green Bay, but aren’t we all forgetting that they play in the NFC?  They could have waited to save their season until Week 10 and still been fine.

• Vikings 21, Bears 17.

Miami vs. Cleveland.  My love affair with Ronnie Brown will continue for at least one more week, until the Patriots find out in Week Seven.

• Browns 40, Dolphins 14.

Washington vs. Green Bay.  This Redskins team is looking like a keeper.  Of course, last time I thought that, they blew a second half lead to the Giants and ruined my suicide league. 

• Redskins 27, Packers 21.

Houston vs. Jacksonville.  A bad Houston team swept a good Jacksonville team last year.  This has nothing to do with this season.

• Jaguars 18, Texans 6.

Cincinnati vs. Kansas City.  Last time we saw the Bengals, they were bickering and yelling on Monday Night Football.  This week, they will be doing so on a CBS game only seen in the greater Kansas City and Cincinnati metropolis areas.

• Chiefs 20, Bengals 19.

Philadelphia vs. New York Jets.  I missed my Donovan McNabb hyperbole this week.  Chad Pennington hyperbole just isn’t the same.

• Eagles 50, Jets 30.

Carolina vs. Arizona.  The Cardinals look like an NFC playoff team, and Vinny Testaverde should make them look like an AFC playoff team.

• Cardinals 38, Panthers 12.

New England vs. Dallas.  Given the hype for this game, I cannot even begin to fathom what it will be like for the Pats-Colts.

• Patriots 38, Cowboys 14.

Oakland vs. San Diego.  The Chargers got off the schneid last week against the Broncos in a big way.  I’ll miss the Norv Turner second-guessing and job security questions.

• Chargers 40, Raiders 21.

New Orleans vs. Seattle.  My family and I are going to this game.  I’ll be the guy sitting behind the drunk Seahawk fans, pretending to have a good time while they show the Sea-Fense guy on the JumboTron for the umpteenth time.

• Saints 21, Seahawks 14.

Last Week: 5-9

Season 43-33